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[八卦怪谈] 2018年Fields奖预测(z)

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发表于 2016-8-1 00:22:02 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
What are your predictions for the 2018 Fields Medals?
3 Answers
Anonymous
2.4k Views

Peter Scholze, arithmetic algebraic geometry : likelihood 80%

Maryna Viazovska, analytic number theory and discrete geometry : likelihood 60%

Simon Brendle, differential geometry and geometric analysis: likelihood 40%

Alessio Figalli, partial differential equations and calculus of variations : likelihood 40%

Gregory Miermont, probability and stochastic geometry : likelihood 40%

Akshay Venkatesh, number theory and automorphic forms : likelihood 40%

Ciprian Manolescu, low-dimensional topology and gauge theory : likelihood 20%

Fernando Marques, differential geometry : likelihood 20%

Sophie Morel, Langlands program : likelihood 20%

Wei Zhang, number theory and automorphic forms : likelihood 20%

Sabin Cautis, knot homology and vertex algebras : likelihood 5%

Joel Kamnitzer, knot homology and geometric representation theory : likelihood 5%

Jacob Tsimerman, number theory : likelihood 5%

Lexing Yin, numerical analysis and scientific computing : likelihood 5%

Updated May 25 · View Upvotes

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Anonymous
5.4k Views

The weight of Scholze's work certainly is up to the Fields Medal, but considering his age: he still will have other chances, so maybe they will not award it to him in 2018 (but later is almost certainly). Figalli is another serious contender, but he will have other chances, so maybe it will go to Manolescu or to Miermont this time. Morel: her work is great and also has the pro of being a female mathematician, but since her academic brothers (Lafforgue and Châu) already won it, maybe this could be a con. Differential geometry is lacking Fields Medals for a long time, so maybe they will give it to some differential geometer: if this happen, then it will probably be to Codá-Marques. About predictions: who knows? Maybe someone will solve one of the Millennium Prize Problems in the meantime or other great works, and then all of this will change.

Written Mar 14 · View Upvotes
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Anonymous
1.3k Views
My guess: Ciprian Manolescu (ROU), for his works in topology, and Peter Scholze (GER), for his works in algebraic geometry.

https://www.quora.com/What-are-y ... -2018-Fields-Medals
Scholze,Peter.jpg
发表于 2016-8-1 01:23:59 | 显示全部楼层
什么时候能知道结果?
 楼主| 发表于 2016-8-1 02:19:08 | 显示全部楼层
qea2 发表于 2016-8-1 01:23
什么时候能知道结果?

ICM 2018
International Congress of Mathematicians
August 01 to 09, 2018
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
再过两年开国际数学家大会的时候就能知道结果了。
发表于 2016-8-2 04:34:39 | 显示全部楼层
math1 发表于 2016-8-1 02:19
ICM 2018
International Congress of Mathematicians
August 01 to 09, 2018

现在就预测是否有点早了?还有两年时间。
发表于 2016-8-2 05:05:58 | 显示全部楼层
两年的时间里,还会发生很多的变数的。
 楼主| 发表于 2016-8-2 16:00:27 | 显示全部楼层
qea2 发表于 2016-8-2 04:34
现在就预测是否有点早了?还有两年时间。

现在预测两年后的获奖名单是有点早,
而且这份名单上的获奖几率不一定准确,
未来两年还有可能产生足以获奖的成就出现黑马,
这可以作为了解当前数学获奖热门人选的一份参考。
发表于 2016-8-2 20:26:57 | 显示全部楼层
数学天才Peter Scholze有种钦定的感觉。
 楼主| 发表于 2017-8-26 17:51:14 | 显示全部楼层
刚看到一个网上投票的网址:
https://vote.pollcode.com/44839318

Who do you think will win Fields Medal in 2018?
Mark Braverman
Simon Brendle
Vincent Calvez
Fernando Codá Marques
Guido de Philippis
Hugo Duminil-Copin
Alessio Figalli
Adrian Ioana
Peter Keevash
Subhash Khot
Alexander Logunov
James Maynard
Ciprian Manolescu
Kaisa Matomaki
Grégory Miermont
Jason Miller
Sophie Morel
John Pardon
Maksym Radziwill
Tom Sanders
Peter Scholze
Jacob Tsimerman
Corinna Ulcigrai
Péter Varjú
Maryna Viazovska
Geordie Williamson
Thomas Willwacher
Zhiwei Yun
Sara Zahedi
Wei Zhang

感兴趣的坛友可以去投一下票,支持一下心中的获奖者吧!
目前有347人参与投票,排名靠前的几位候选人是:
Peter Scholze 202 votes
Geordie Williamson 81 votes
Ciprian Manolescu 65 votes
Simon Brendle 61 votes
Maryna Viazovska 60 votes
Fernando Codá Marques 48 votes
Alessio Figalli 46 votes
James Maynard 29 votes
Wei Zhang 29 votes
Sophie Morel 28 votes
Hugo Duminil-Copin 20 votes
Grégory Miermont 20 votes
发表于 2017-9-3 05:12:02 | 显示全部楼层
希望能杀出黑马来

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